Nobody likes bad news.
Imagine your house has a solid front door with a lock so strong that even the Hulk couldn’t smash through it.
Now imagine someone invents a magical key that can open any lock in the world.
That’s basically what quantum computing could do to today’s encryption.
We once thought quantum computers were decades away from causing any trouble - like flying cars or ice-cream flavoured toothpaste.
But recent breakthroughs mean that instead of worrying about it in 2040, we might be facing the problem as soon as late 2027–2032.
The risk?
Someone, somewhere, could break into all our secret stuff — banks, governments, even your private WhatsApp chats — before we’ve had time to put up better locks and in fact this is looking more and more likely every day.
What’s the Problem Exactly?
Our digital world — banks, hospitals, emails, even blockchain — relies on encryption methods like RSA and ECC.
These are data security ways of saying: we scramble information so bad guys can’t read it.
Quantum computers, using special algorithms like Shor’s Algorithm, are poised to unscramble all of it.
Like a 5-year-old unwrapping a Christmas present in three seconds flat.
The critical question is:
Can we fix our locks faster than quantum computers can learn how to pick them?
Signs point to a painful “no” and the more I apply what I know about causality to all of the things we know (the “known knowns”) the likelihood indicates that this will cause a serious problem of Covid like proportions at some point in the future - failing any significant innovations that can resolve or update enterprise wide cryptography, which is unlikely.
Is This Just “CyberScare BS?
The truth is the world has been working on Quantum for years and years, in much the same way we worked on AI in the 70’s and 80’s with expert systems.
The absolute transparent position is that over the past 60 months pace of innovation has increased and its now increasing at light speed with Quantum Computing expected to be usable pretty damn soon.
We are already using Quantum Secure communications which is currently at its early innovator stage of market cycle development.
Just like AI crept up on us and then gave us a double whammy - Quantum Computation is poised to do the same.
Its moved from theory to implementable product in communications and sensing, and computation is about to cross the finish line between theory and practicable implementation.
Root Cause: Why Are We Sitting Ducks?
Let’s play the “5 Whys” game:
- Why are we at risk? Because quantum computers can smash through our current encryption at a point in the near future - anywhere between 2027 (slim) and 2035 (sure bet).
- Why haven’t we upgraded? Because quantum-safe cryptography (PQC) only just got standardised (NIST 2024), and upgrading the world is like trying to repaint the Eiffel Tower… with a toothbrush.
- Also the only probable fix is the use of quantum cryptography (replacement not an upgrade) which is not there yet, and that unlikely to be production ready in the timescale.
- Why is it so slow? Hardware needs replacing, software needs updating, staff need retraining — it’s a logistical nightmare.
- Why isn’t everyone panicking? Because humans are famously bad at reacting to slow-moving disasters (ask anyone who ignored climate change, said that COVID was just the flu, or the Titanic having enough lifeboats).
- Why are predictions so wrong? Because quantum tech has advanced faster than an express train on rocket boosters and only a few people really have a good grip on the speed of innovation. There is so much its difficult to track.
In short: quantum computers are sprinting and our defences are crawling.
Even if Quantum Computation arrives right on forecast of 2035, can we update all cryptography in 9 years, on all devices?
Possible but unlikely.
A Quick Causal Analysis: What’s Making It Worse?
Here’s why the perfect storm is brewing:
- Rocket-Speed Tech: Companies like Intel Corporation , PsiQuantum , and Microsoft have made shockingly fast progress. We might see quantum machines that can break encryption between 2027–2029 - a low probability <10% but still with the potential curve ball option.
- Old, Wobbly Cryptography: Most of our systems still use outdated locks like RSA. (It’s like defending your house with a biscuit after three minutes of vigorous tea dunking.)
- Hardware Problems: Building and distributing quantum-safe gear is slow. Shifting a semiconductor fab to new tech takes 7–10 years. Its highly unlikely we will be able to manufacture enough of the new kit in time to replace the old.
- Governments Snoozing: Regulations are more “suggestions” than hard rules right now, there is early awareness but there are also other fish to fry with the state of the world right now.
- Global Arms Race: Countries are hoarding stolen encrypted data today, planning to decrypt it tomorrow (Harvest Now, Decrypt Later strategy) - lets be clear it’s not just HDNL - there is a good chance we could just smash through cryptography.
- Private Sector Gap: Big companies like IBM HSBC and JPMorganChase are investing, but smaller businesses are lagging behind.
- QuantumML as an Addition to AI In The Hackers Toolbox - If you think AI is sexy wait untill you see the capabilities and special powers that will open up when hackers get the keys to the QML sweetie shop. AI is Cool but Quantum Machine Learning Is Just Bonkers.
In short: everything is going right (for Quantum) and wrong (for Data Security) at the same time.
Lovely.
Can We Upgrade Fast Enough?
Not likely.
- Fully upgrading encryption globally takes 10–15 years.
- Quantum cracking capability might arrive in 2–5 years.
- Defence is moving two to three times slower than offence.
Some are trying “hybrid cryptography” (mixing old and new), but it’s complicated, messy, and nowhere near widespread enough yet.
Executive Briefing On Post Quantum Cryptography
🧟♂️ The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” Time Bomb
Here’s a spooky thought: even if we manage to invent quantum computers in 2032, the damage is already happening now.
Countries and hackers are stealing your encrypted emails, financial data, medical records today — planning to crack them open later.
It’s like freezing all the pizzas you steal, waiting until you invent a microwave that can cook them in five seconds.
Even if the full disaster takes a few years to arrive, the seeds are already planted.
This isn’t here-say - there are well documented HDNL attacks.
If you are claiming BS only 0.00000001% of data has value - you are right, unfortunately its likely Quantum technology will be absolutely great at digging out that small percentile and making use of it.
Black Swan Risk: Who Needs A Financial System Anyway
Given everything, there’s now a greater chance of something catastrophic happening to our global digital security between 2027–2035.
What might that look like?
- Blockchain Meltdown: Malicious transactions or thefts could wreck trust.
- Blockchain is unprotected and nobody seems to care or be listening although people are starting to pick up on the message, those that get it are freaking out.
- Addresses are exposed, migration time doesn’t work - Web3 is at risk.
- Read Quantum Safe Bitcoin Wallets
- Massive Bank Breaches: Financial chaos if private transactions are exposed, and they almost certainly will be. There is depreciated encryption everywhere in the financial infrastructure and as even the least paranoid of CISO’s will tell you - that’s a problem.
- Government Secrets Out: Diplomatic disasters and national security failures.
- Collapse of Digital Trust: No one would trust websites, emails, or apps anymore.
It wouldn’t just be annoying — it could break entire industries, and while I am not saying that its the end of the world - it is likely there will be significant financial fall out, and its unlikely it can be stopped.
This may well be the price to upgrade to the Quantum Internet, however thats currently a rebuild not a patch improvement process.
What Must Be Done
If we want to dodge this train wreck, we need urgent action:
- Mandatory adoption of quantum-safe cryptography - which will probably need to be quantum in nature, much of which isn’t tested or mathematically validated.
- Widespread use of hybrid encryption NOW, not later.
- Heavy investment in quantum-resilient hardware.
- Active threat monitoring (especially those Harvest Now campaigns - Heavy BGP monitoring).
In short: Stop dragging feet, start sprinting**.**
The window to act is closing faster than you can say “superposition.”
Currently the fix is unlikely to be here before the threat emerges.
🌎 Why This Matters for Business and Technology
If you think this is just a “tech nerd” problem, think again.
- Banks could collapse and even if one or two get hit there will be ripples.
- Blockchain could lose all credibility.
- Tech companies could be sued into oblivion - although in the absence of a financial infrastructure this might be ok.
- Governments could lose control of vital services.
In business terms: companies that fail to upgrade risk being eaten alive by lawsuits, regulation fines, and reputational destruction.
If you’re an executive reading this, it’s not a “nice to have” anymore.
It’s a survival issue, and the odds are firmly stacked against you.
📚Sources
- McKinsey Quantum Manufacturing Report, 2024
- Microsoft Quantum Research Milestones, 2024
- NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Final Standards, 2024
- NSA Quantum-Resistant Strategy, 2022
- ENISA Threat Landscape, 2024
- World Economic Forum, Quantum Security Reports, 2023
